global economy will collapse due to total charade
organized and controlled by The Powers That Be.
Predicts massive inflation followed by
repudiation of fiat currency, or worldwide
deflation (take your pick). Looks to political
events for clues about the future. Was hoping Y2K
would be more eventful than it turned out to be.
gold stocks and some bear funds. Isn't quite
ready to commit to shorting or buying puts.
Waiting for confirmation. In the meantime has
stocked up on food and water, 'just in case it
gets real bad'.
||Credit Crisis Bear
complicated essays about esoteric financial
issues. Concerned about low savings rates, trade
deficits, the yield curve, bond market hijinks,
bank overextension, and the money supply. Has
seen so much negative data over the past four
years, it's hard to detect any real signal
to play with broad market instruments as opposed
to individual stocks. Hasn't lost shirt.
high P/E stocks to come back to earth when
fundamentals reassert themselves. Once was an
enthusiastic bear (say in 1997, 8, and 9). Has
witnessed the market stall and dip, only to blast
off again, several times. Significantly burned
with worthless puts or short squeezes more than
once. Has developed an exquisite sense for the
market. Won't get fooled again. Mostly in the
market for revenge.
in and out of bear funds and occasional
put/shorts. Is waiting for the right time, at
which time will pile on and ride the market down.
Is not expecting a crash, but wouldn't be
surprised if it happened.
for stocks to bounce around but generally head
south. Feels that Technical Analysis is the way
to go most of the time. Has been a survivor
(unlike some vanquished Weary Bears) because of
nimble trading and tight stops.
or week-trades. Has had some successes, but also
some losses in the last three years. Is likely to
short-cover a little too soon if the Big One
showed up and doesn't understand why old-time
bears (listed above) aren't gung-ho about an
immediate market decline. Hasn't experienced a
snap-back rally. Hasn't owned a double-inverse
Nasdaq fund, but thinks it's attractive. Hasn't
shorted or held puts, been in the money, only to
have some meatball analyst talk up stocks prior
to expiration Friday. May be in for some rude
will choose what kind of bear to be. Many become
Trading Bears. Others split into Apocalypse,
Credit Crisis, and Weary Bear categories.
the NASDAQ for the most part. Managed to short
those stocks which were part of the 'stealth'
bear market. Most likely a fundamentalist who
also was aware of the great risks in betting
against a momentum sector.
in for gains only after clear and convincing
evidence appears for earnings problems and lack
of market enthusiasm.
read Fleckenstein and Tice for years. Paid
attention to Barton Biggs, Alan Abelson, and Jim
Grant. Knows all the arguments regarding market
overvaluation. Owns a dog-eared copy of The
much. It's like, "If all these guys are
correct, how come the market hasn't collapsed
yet?" Bears sound convincing, but reality
has been different - so far.
to be extinct.
hopping mad at the outrageous P/E for EBAY.
Incredulous about multi-billion market caps for
'blue sky' startups. Rants about optical,
biotech, fuel-cells, and other passing fads.
a lot of noise, but hasn't put too much money at
risk yet. Deep down, this bear senses that as
insane as this market is, no amount of hectoring
will change it.
the market is overvalued, but not quite sure by
how much. Tends to be long for the most part - or
in low yield but safe instruments. Wants to
participate in a bear feast, but frankly can't
see the right opportunity. Thinks puts are always
not do much even in a bear market. Watches the
situation closely, but feels that it's too risky
called for a market decline as far back as anyone
can remember. Is usually a guest on CNBC for the
bulls to make fun of.
standard remarks about being in cash, or to
lighten up on stocks that have gained 400% over
the last year. Everybody ignores the advice.
||Wall $treet Week Bear
banished from the show. The last one seen there,
Gail Dudak, was tossed from the Elves Index in
Louis Rukeyser's demise.
it's not worth gaming this market.
until a recession shows up.
the market will drop starting tomorrow.
whole hog against the market. Indescriminately
buys puts, and shorts momentum stocks while
they are rising. Approximate life span for
this species has been nine months.
of limited upside in selected stocks. A more
aggressive (and foolish - if you can believe it)
version of Rabid Bear.
naked calls during bull markets. Is destined for
bankruptcy in short order. Will lose shirt,
shorts, and everything else.
of Trading Bear. Talks the bear talk, but deep
down isn't fully committed. Lacks conviction.
It's the same problem (only in reverse) that
perma-bears have when they try to be
play the short side, but tends to put more money
on the table for upside moves.
disgusted with Wall Street and isn't an active
trader. No money left. Got badly burned shortly
after one crisis (Asia, Russia, LTCM, or '98 tech
slump) by betting on further declines, only to
see the Federal Reserve step in and save the day.
May have also lost big during the wild ride of
Nov99-Mar00. Would like to have lunch with Julian
angry letters to Alan Greenspan. Refuses to watch
CNBC anymore. Uses business section of newspaper
to train dog or line birdcage.
Loves life. Believes we live in the best of all
possible worlds. Thinks Maria Bartiromo is
on medication under a doctor's supervision.
bull - no doubt about it.
up on bearish message boards and raises hell
until chased away by the system administrator.
a bull. Will remain so until bear market is fully
established. Then it will be to late.
the crowd. Pays attention to Peter Lynch, Joe
Battipaglia, and Henry Blodget. Does whatever
Abby Cohen advises.
for a number of reasons: Technical Analysis,
Fundamentals, Market Mood. Doesn't really matter.
out on Yahoo boards and engages in fiery debates
with believers in the New Era. POSTS IN ALL CAPS.
bearish orientation being shaped by parents'
gloomy estimation of the markets. That will be a
great asset or a great liability -
depending on what actually happens when the
critter reaches adulthood.
wait to be old enough to open a brokerage account
and short QCOM (or its equivalent).
that another melt-up is in the offing. Only a
couple of days earlier had committed substantial
funds to the short side. Now very worried due to
'froth talk' about pending mergers,
money-on-the-sidelines coming back, 401k inflows,
Fed easing, any speech by Greenspan, or
all short positions at market open. In the past,
this has often been the right thing to do, but is
developing a stimulus/reaction response that may
be a handicap in the future.
horrible short play cancelled out by another that
went well. Wonders why bother at all with this
evening, goes out with friends or family for a
good time. Might have a few drinks as well.
pretty good about recent successes.
some out-of-the-money puts a week before Company
X warned, and has a ten-bagger as a result.
Looking for another firm with a similar profile
in order to try it again.
likes stocks trading below book value and with
P/E's under 5. Favors large cap consumer
non-durables. Considers Warren Buffett too much
of a risk taker.
tech like the plague. Loves bonds. Portfolio has
appreciated by 2% (on an annual basis) over the
last decade. Unlikely to actively bet against the
market, despite feeling that it's a bubble
destined to burst.
||Elliot Wave Bear
up a storm. Can count up to five (according to
studies at the University of Michigan). Keeps
portrait of Leonardo Pisano Fibonacci in den. Bed
has length:width ratio of 1.618*
* Golden ratio, Phi [f]
quite well at times, but may find market
transition points (churning) hard to resolve one
way or another. Runs risk of being whipsawed. It
is not known if Elliot Wave Bears and Elliot Wave
Bulls are distinct species - though most experts
suspect that is the case.
||Scared S***less Bear
a stock at 120 only to see it run up to 160.
Hoping for a market reversal. Either that, or an
asteroid to hit Manhattan before the margin call
not 'do it' in the woods. Is frozen into
inaction, hoping for an exit point that never
seems to materialize. Good candidate for a peptic
||New Era Bear
such thing. A contradiction in terms.
of Kodiak Bear.
EK in '99 and in '00. Recently gobbled up profits
faster than its fellow bears eat salmon in
significant funds are in 401k plan. By law,
options may not be purchased, nor can stocks be
shorted. Must look to the few inverse-market
mutual funds as the best alternative.
PrudentBear (BEARX), BearGuard, ProFunds (USPIX,
URPIX), or Rydex/Arktos (RYAIX, RYURX) funds.
on the Nasdaq-100 trust, though may also get
involved with specific stocks from time to time.
Likes the fact that the Q's average out much of
the noise and unpredictability that accompanies
Plays the Q's directly, or may try options. Has
to watch things pretty closely at times since
volatility remains fairly large, even for an
index. Even though a bear in general orientation,
has to go long occasionally 'cause that's where
the index seems to be headed at times.
QQQ Bear, but prefers working the Standard and
to QQQ Bear.
as they come. Has actually made trades based on
Alan Abelson's column. Probably shorted a bit of
AOL for a small profit, and thinks playing the
downside isn't all that troubling. Hasn't
experienced a short squeeze yet.
no attention to Short Ratio, Shares Outstanding
vs. Float, Shares Short as Percent of Float. Will
be paying attention in the near future.
endangered species list during times of
irrational exuberance. Prior history shows an
ability for the population to recover sharply
during market downturns.
fundamentalist for the most part. Tends not to
take big risks. Unexciting player to watch. Owns
a copy of Graham and Dodd's Security Analysis,
and will be happy to discuss it with you over
dinner. (You, of course, politely decline the
with the Japanese Yen, British Pound, Mexican
Peso, and the Greek Drachma. Likes the idea of a
Currency Board for 'those countries that lack
self discipline'. Sees economic strength in terms
of exchange rates. Is frankly baffled by the poor
showing of the Euro.
a little currency futures trading at times, but
for the most part buys and sells equities in
that much of the pain and suffering endured
during the 1990's seems to be finally over.
Though there have been big losses during that
time, the fact that the New Era has lost its
sheen, provides some solace. Always thought
Greenspan was way too cavalier about the fact
that "we may be in a bubble".
help saying, "I told you so," when
dot-coms that traded as high as $100 are now
going for $2 and change. Is not sympathetic at
all to daytraders or margin players that got hurt
- but doesn't tease them either.
||21st Century Bear
most fortunate creature. Through luck or skill,
didn't become a bear until the year 2000. Missed
out on all the 'fun' other bears experienced up
to that time.
shorting and puts on tech. Not a whole lot of
analysis applied. To the amazement of long time
bears, most plays turn out to be big winners.
(Sort of the inverse of the buy-on-the-dips bull:
can't lose when the trend is your friend)
from Fundamental Analysis to Technical Analysis
to Market Mood to Astrological Influences to
whatever catches his fancy. Although a bear in
outlook, the failings of each school during the
exuberant market have made this bear keep looking
for something to make sense of it all.
the wrong thing at the wrong time. Shorted during
the wild run ups. Bought puts when the market was
stagnant. Tried to profit on the situation the
day after a big market drop, only to get socked
by the snap-back rally.
believe the television ads for brokerage firms
which feature people who wouldn't know a 10K if
it came up and if it bit them in the behind. Was
stunned that Schwab featured 18-year-old tennis
player Anna Kournikova explaining financial terms
between sets. Incredulous that so many ads were
aired during the Superbowl. Considers the fact
that Jeff Bezos was Time's Man of the Year a good
indicator that the world has gone mad.
popular media. Only watches PBS or reads back
issues of Colliers.